Read ours UFC prediction At the event Saturday, August 9, UFC Apex from Las Vegas, Nevada. The preliminary card for ESPN+ starts at 4:30 pm ET, with ESPN on 8:00 pm ET.
Our MMA experts participated in the 12 battle lineup this weekend to get the best bets from the UFC and identified their favorite cards.
You can find their analysis and selections in the matches below, as well as Sean Zerillo's currency line and prop predictions.
UFC Vegas 109 Moneyline Forecast
UFC Vegas 109 Prop Prediction
UFC Vegas 109 Best Bets
Christian Leroy Duncan and Eryk Anders
Billy Ward, staff writer
Fighter strike: approx. 7:15 ET
Eryk Anders scored 2-1 in the last three games. He also suffered a knockdown in each of his matches, but some were impossible to avoid completing, and the only loss passed the decision.
He suffered a knockout against Chris Weidman, Jamie Pickett and Marc-Andre Barriault, who were much less than his opponent this time than his opponent Christian Leroy Duncan.
“CLD” has three knockout matches in six UFC battles, including one of his wins. He is a long and explosive former basketball player who shoots at a fairly high speed, usually finishing his opponent with a strike rather than a huge knockout match. With Ander's rapidly fading chin at 38, Duncan probably won't spend too many clean shots to end his night, and Duncan is good enough to prevent him from dropping Anders.
Anders, on the other hand, have huge grab edges. The former Cleveland Browns practice guard averages nearly two hits per battle and regularly plays professional games.
Duncan's grab match was relatively weak, and he matched his opponents who would not challenge with batting. If Anders put this on the ground, he would be aggressive from the top and could easily find the finish by the ground and pounds.
I'm having this fight to end up with +125 bets via ESPN. The probability of implicitness is about 45%, which is significantly lower than the partition average by nearly 60%. Additionally, since this is located in a smaller vertex cage, it is more likely to be done than a full-size octagon.
Fights below 2.5 (+145) or ending through KO (+140) are also viable options, but the price premium is not enough to justify the additional risk.
Selection: The battle ends within range +125 (ESPN bet)
Jean Matsumoto and Miles Johns
Sean Zerillo, senior writer
Fighter strike: approx. 7:45 ET
While Jean Matsumoto's three large numbers of decisions in three of his four UFC rounds, including his contract-making performance in the contender series, faced opponents who could combine combinations, including Rob Font and Brad Katona, and matched his results.
Matsumoto-his hits per minute more than twice as many as Miles Johns (8.7 vs. 4.0), should have a significant work rate on Saturday's edge of working speed, opponents six years old, and show a tendency to fade in the second half of the fight.
Matsumoto is a comprehensive, advanced prospect – he will force Johns to fight at an uncomfortable pace in this game. Although Johns comes from a wrestling base, Matsumoto is likely to launch an offensive grab (16.5 vs. 6.6 distances every 15 minutes, he is the more dangerous terminator on the mat.
I hope to be the first round before Matsumoto takes over the momentum. You can put the same game Parlay (SGP) with Matsumoto and 1.5 rounds (DraftKings-165) to -200, but I also like Fanduel's SGP options, Matsumoto's Moneyline and his odds and his chances encountered the most important strike in the battle (-187).
Unlike Matsumoto's closest rival, Johns did not abandon it. Instead, he raised his big hand to look for a knockout or knockout. He landed on the more important strike path, but the road to Matsumoto losing was extremely narrow. He may need to get extended maximum control in the third round.
By then, and given aerobic dynamics in this game, look for better live straight lines on Matsumoto after round 1 and consider his chances of being in front of the battle in round 2 (+1000 at Ballybet) or round 3 (+1300 at Fanatics) in addition to these SGP options.
Picks: SGP: Jean Matsumoto and over 1.5 rounds (-165 in Draftkings) | SGP: Jean Matsumoto ML & Matsumoto hit the more important strike (-187 in Fanduel) | Matsumoto wins in round 2 (+1000 in Ballybet) | Matsumoto wins in round 3 (+1300 in Fanatics)
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