Amid the red line of protests in Gaza in Paris on July 8, the flag with watermelon is a symbol of Palestinian identity.
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Henrique Campos/AFP via Getty Images
France and the United Kingdom are one of the latest countries ready to formally recognize the Palestinian state – the moves of two permanent members of the UN Security Council will deepen the division with Israel and the United States in the 22-month war in Gaza. Canada also joined the National Choir this week, which recently demonstrated recognition of the Palestinian nation.
The recognition of the plan may be as early as September, which may mark a turning point. Although France appears to be ready to act unconditionally, Britain and Canada link their decisions to actions taken by Israel or Palestinian authorities, which manage parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. This shift reflects global anger at Gaza’s humanitarian losses, including reports of widespread hunger in the encircled territory.
More than 145 countries recognize the state of Palestine.
Mouin Rabbani, a non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Global Affairs Research Group, said the move, though largely symbolic, has diplomatic weight. “When you have the importance and importance of France and the UK taking this measure, it does leave a feeling of a dam breaking,” Rabani said. “One can expect others to follow.”
Michael Lynk, a former UN independent human rights expert, said the move also “had a gun shot on Israel's bow.” For those countries that choose to acknowledge the state of Palestinian, it shows that they are “angry and frustrated” [and] Israel's war in Gaza is troubled. ”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement that he acknowledged the Palestinian state “rewards Hamas’ enormous terrorism and punishes its victims.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio shared this view in an article on X last week, which called it a “recky decision” and “only serves Hamas’ propaganda.” Palestinian authorities officials welcomed the announcements from France and the UK, while the BBC reported that Hamas called France’s actions a “positive step.”
Britain and Canada say, what exactly is France?
Paris, London and Ottawa have long supported a two-state solution by establishing a Palestinian state to address the long-running Israeli-Palestine state, which Palestinians say should include the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. Leaders of the three countries said they intend to make the announcement at the UN General Assembly in New York in September. But they took a slightly different approach.
Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron assured Palestinian authorities President Mahmoud Abbas in a letter on X, France plans to recognize the Palestinian state. Macron called for an immediate ceasefire, release of all hostages, “massive humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza”, ensuring “demilitarization of Hamas”, and rebuilding a Palestinian state that fully recognizes Israel.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer outlined the September timeline, which will endorse the Palestinian state unless Israel agrees to a ceasefire, halts Israel’s expansion of settlements in the West Bank and is committed to a two-state solution. His statement also called for “the evacuation of Israeli forces and the removal of Hamas leadership from Gaza are a critical step towards negotiating a two-state solution.”
Canada has some of the same conditions. In a press conference on Wednesday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his administration’s move aims to preserve a two-country solution, “is the only roadmap for a security and prosperity future.” Kahney also said Palestinian authorities, which have not held elections since 2006, must vote in 2026 to exclude Hamas.
Gaza’s Ministry of Health said Israeli troops killed more than 60,000 Palestinians during the Gaza war. According to Israel, the war began with a Hamas-led attack in October 2023, killing about 1,200 Israeli people.
What are the actual and diplomatic impacts?
UN Security Council members voted on a June 4 resolution at the United Nations headquarters in New York City to demand a ceasefire in Gaza and unrestricted humanitarian access. Leonardo Munoz/AFP Closed subtitles via Getty Images
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Leonardo Munoz/AFP via Getty Images
If the United Kingdom and France recognize a Palestinian state, four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (France, Britain, Russia and China) will make a statement on this issue. “This means that the United States is the only country … refuses to seek help from unconditional support for everything Israel has done,” said Khaled Elgindy, a visiting scholar at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies in Georgetown.
Diplomacy, this means that a recognized state can exchange complete ambassadors with the Palestinian authorities. “This will improve [Canada’s] Ramala's representative office [in the West Bank] to an embassy filled with embassies, not representatives, Palestine will have an ambassador and a complete embassy in Ottawa. ”
Nevertheless, most countries that currently have no formal relations with the Palestinian authority still maintain informal relations through various diplomatic, political and humanitarian channels.
“Recognizing that the Palestinian states have an obligation … to take measures to protest and act – if necessary, actual sanctions have been imposed on any state that interferes with Palestinian sovereignty.”
In France and the UK, this may mean two other votes on Israel in the UN Security Council, but as Rabani noted: “France and Britain have not deployed their veto power for decades to defend Israel.” Instead, they allowed the United States to exercise its veto power, he said. “So, I don’t think the Security Council will change.”
Finally, there may be an impact on the International Criminal Court (ICC), which in November arrested Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for committing “crimes against humanity and war crimes” since the beginning of the Gaghasa conflict. Netanyahu called the allegations “outrageous” and the International Court of Justice called “the enemy of mankind.”
Yaël Ronen, senior researcher at the Center for Human Rights at the Minerva University of Hebrew University, said the recognition “can have legal consequences within the jurisdiction of the ICC…”.
However, France said it would not arrest Netanyahu and Garant because in this case it is incompatible with the obligations of international law related to international law.
Therefore, the awareness of the Palestinian state “does not mean that if these countries reach the soil of France or Britain, these countries will definitely arrest these politicians.”
“We have seen this year that France has repeatedly allowed war criminals prosecuted, Israeli war criminals, who are fugitives in international justice because the International Criminal Court wants to use French airspace on its way to the United States.”
France, the United Kingdom and Canada all said Hamas must be far from the Palestinian states in the future, but it is not clear whether this is possible.
Hamas, who controls Gaza and separates from the Palestinian Authority, has ties to some Middle Eastern countries and maintains limited ties with Russia and China. However, the EU and most Western countries, including the United States, Canada and Australia, declare Islamic organizations a terrorist organization.
Why is it suddenly changing now?
“There is a crisis. There is a feeling that something needs to be done to stop this. So you do whatever you can. If nothing else, that's what you're going to do.”
Public opinion also plays a role. For example, according to a YouGov poll conducted last week, in the UK, 45% of British people say their government should recognize a Palestinian state, while only 14% of countries disagree.
Rabani said that for countries that recognize the state of Palestinian, Israel’s actions forced them to hand. Former French Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine and Lemondthe Macron government has the responsibility to do something. “Doing nothing has become inseparable given the shocking situation and lack of prospects in Gaza.”
Rabani also doubted the possibility that the countries involved would like to restore a two-state solution, which he described as “an increasingly becoming a fantasy framework.”
“The Israeli government puts them in an impossible situation,” he said.
Finally, simply realizing that the Palestinian state is a low-cost option. Rabani said this could lead domestic audiences to demand action without actually taking little action to change the situation on the ground. It's easier than imposing real sanctions on Israel, something that Britain, France and Canada have not proposed.
“In this sense, there is a big contradiction between words and actions,” he said.