Key Points
- ASTS revenue is expected to be $5.15 million, losing 19 cents in the second quarter of 2025.
- Macroeconomic challenges and fierce competition challenge AST Spacemobile's competitive advantage.
- Volatility in rising satellite material prices and tariffs is under tension.
AST Space (ASTS Quick Quotationasts – Free Report) plans to report revenue for the second quarter on August 11, 2025 after the market closes. Zacks consensus estimates revenue and earnings of $5.15 million, respectively, and a loss of 19 cents per share. Over the past 60 days, AST's revenue estimates remained unchanged for fiscal 2025, while revenue estimates for fiscal 2026 fell by 8.54%.
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Income surprise history
The company showed an average of 2.59% negative quarter earnings surprises. In the last quarter, the company's revenue surprise was 17.65%.
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Income whispers
Our proven model cannot ultimately predict the pace of ASTS's revenue this time. The combination of positive income ESP and Zacks ranked first (forced buy), 2 (buy) or 3 (hold) increases the chances of income beats. This is not the case here. You can find the best buying and selling stocks before reporting our earnings ESP filters.
ASTS' current ESP is +26.32%, and Zacks ranks 4 (selled). You can see The full list of today's Zacks #1 ranking stocks.
Factors that shape the upcoming results
During the quarter, ASTS established a strategic partnership with India’s renowned network service provider Vodafone Idea (VI), to bring satellite-based mobile connectivity directly to smartphones nationwide.
Under this partnership, AST Spacemobile will deploy and manage satellite constellations, while VI will manage ground network infrastructure. Once operated, this will open up new possibilities in the fields of emergency response, disaster management, agriculture, remote learning, remote work and several other applications. The company also worked with Fairwinds Technologies to evaluate the applicability of space mobile broadband in defense applications.
During the quarter of the review, the company has retired, with a total amount of $225 million in convertible notes in 2032 to reduce its debt burden and cash interest obligations. This is about half of the 2032 convertible notes, with a total principal amount of approximately $235 million. This allows AST to free up cash for R&D activities to drive long-term growth.
However, the company operates in the highly competitive mobile satellite services market. The company is facing fierce competition from other major players, such as SpaceX's Starlink and Globalstar. Therefore, to maintain its competitive advantage, ASTS must continually innovate its services, which increases operating expenses and reduces profit margins. In addition, the company relies on third-party launch providers. Any failure, delay or poor performance by these providers can disrupt the timely deployment of their satellites and potentially disrupt their operations.
Price performance
ASTS has risen 136.3% over the past year, while the industry has grown 31.5%. However, it outperforms similar peers Viasat Inc. (vsat fast quoteVSAT – Free Report) and Iridium Communications, Inc. (IRDM fast quoteIRDM – Free Report) During this period. Viasat rose 18.5%, while the iris accounted for 11.5% during that period.
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Key Valuation Indicators of AST
From a valuation point of view, ASTS is currently trading at a premium compared to the industry. Based on the price/sales ratio, the company's current stock currently has forward sales of 62.01, up from 3.58 for the industry.
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Investment considerations
AST Spacemobile plans to deploy approximately 60 satellites in the next two years. The company is still operating in the pre-business stage with no consistent revenue stream. The deployment of its full constellation requires substantial capital expenditure and is limited in operational history, and any significant investment in the company is a high-risk bet. Regulatory policy changes in countries where ASTS operates may also affect their business.
In addition, the company is affected by adverse macroeconomic conditions. Inflation increases, higher interest rates and capital market volatility will have a negative impact on its operations. The company is also affected by rising satellite costs due to higher tariffs. Due to these factors, fluctuations in satellite material prices have caused uncertainty related to AST Spacemobile's growth prospects in the near term.
In addition, Viasat is steadily increasing its investment in broadband communications platforms to launch reliable direct equipment satellite services. The company is working with major telecom operators around the world to demonstrate the applicability of its service products. Iridium has also accelerated its efforts to develop direct equipment services. These factors may pose a significant challenge to future ASTS growth plans.
Ending
Partnering with major telecom operators like Verizon, AT&T and Vodafone could make ASTS a comprehensive patent portfolio that could give ASTS an advantage in the long run. However, with geopolitical fluctuations, tariff uncertainty and other macroeconomic challenges growing, the growth prospects of ASTS appear softer in the near term.
Its high valuation remains a problem. The downward estimate revision highlights a bearish sense of stock growth potential. So, if investors avoid avoiding investing in this stock at the moment, they would be better off.