Entering three-quarters of the 2025 MLB season, more than three-quarters, some stars are in some amazing final numbers.
Cal Raleigh's every bat is making history – breaking Salvador Perez's record for most home runs in a season in his 49th home run. Judge Aaron, Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani also show why they are considered the sport's top drag. Aces Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes put forward incredible numbers.
We ask our Major League Baseball experts to decide which of these players will keep pace at the moment—which are due to slowing down during the extension.
Cal Raleigh is at the pace of 61 home runs. Will he count the total?
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Jeff Passan: Under 61 years old, but not many. The Seattle Mariners have 31 games left. Raleigh has two unique 31-game spans this year, and he hits at least 12 home runs – he needs to hit a 61-so possible. Now that he has been passed by the Catchers in one season with Salvador Perez, Raleigh can be a 56-game player record set by Ken Griffey Jr. in 1997.
David Schoenfield: His pace has been slowing since the All-Star break – no surprise, as his pace was at the 64-man pace at the time. He only had one day off since his break, and strikeouts piled up in August, including a five-inning game and several three-hit games. Has Rowley finally stood out from almost every game? In other words: under 61 years old.
Kyle Schwarber and shohei ohtani are on the top of over 55 home runs. Who will win the National League home run title and how many more?
Jesse Rogers: Schwarber will win the home run title, reaching 56 this season. He has historically performed well in September's history, and this year is no exception. In his career, he created the second highest slip percentage in September (.521), only behind June. Ohtani is also good later this year, but it turns into a very special season for the Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter. He hit .577 on his left-handed pitch, which would translate into a few home runs around September and is different from home run games.
Buster Olney: Schwarber will win the championship, but he will reach 59. As strong as this season, he just warmed up and had 20 home runs in the last 45 games.
Judge Aaron led the Grand Slam with the 7.3 War. What is his final total?
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Jorge Castillo: After the All-Star game, the judge quietly fell into the cold by his standards and slashed line at .193/.346/.398 and five home runs in 24 games. He insisted that his flexor pressure had cost him 10 games on the injured roster, which did not affect him, but it was easy to doubt whether the decline and the injury were related. It is very likely that the judge will not make the right field for the New York Yankees every day because it will limit his war potential when he is removed from office and returned to the court. Let's take 8.7 as the final number.
Bradford Doolittle: The 7.3 figure is the war version of Fangraphs, whose expected PACE tool has brought him to land on 9.1. He will have to stay away from the IL to hit it, and the pace does not reflect that he may often need DH. This gives him a location value and a chance to increase his on-site value. He also looked rusty since he last stayed. So with all this in mind, I would say the rhythm of Fanggraphs is a bit optimistic and I will get the final number of 8.9…which is very good.
Nick Kurtz's action was 1.026. Will he be a rare rookie with more than 1.000 moves to the end of this season?
Doolittle: Either way, this will do. Of the 497 players with at least 75 plate appearances, Kurtz is one of five players with only one of the OPS above 1.000. Encouragingly, his Homer rate did not overstate his number. He can fight. If you remove home runs from everyone's record, the first baseman in the track and field still has the top 25 OPS.
Another good sign is that he has not shown any family path. Except… Lefty-handed was on the mound, he just hits anywhere. Conquering Southpaws is the last border of Kurtz. All of these are ranked first half in terms of batsmen facing the left forward in the field of the 11 remaining opponents (including Boston and Garrett crochet). I guess Kurtz's rookie of the year won't feature over 1.000 OPS.
Schoenfield: Rare is an understatement. The only qualified rookie since World War II was 1.000 OPS, Judges Albert Pujols and Aaron. Kurtz should reach the 502 disk appearance required for qualification, and yes, he will end with a 1.000 operation. how? In the second half, his OBP exceeded .500 (!) as his walking speed continued to climb, and the pitcher was getting more and more careful in pitching at him. Not only is Kurtz one of the best batsmen in the game, he is already.
Tarik Skubal had a 247 strikeout. Will he achieve his goal?
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Passan: Yes. Skubal was in 200 strikeouts at the start of 25 times. He started at least six times left with six — and if the schedule is lined up correctly, there are probably seven — and he has improved historically by the end of the season. His September 3-point shooting percentage was his second highest in any month and ended with a booming finish as he hoped to be the first back-to-back league annual champion since 1999-2000.
Rogers: Yes – but hardly. In a world, the Detroit Tigers took up so early that they shrank a little bit in his last few games, right? Again, he will definitely have more than he averages eight strikeouts per game. That will bring him to 250 points by the end of this month. The Tigers will likely see you again in the playoffs – which means Skubal can let it fly in September, knowing he'll take a week off before hitting the ball in the first game.
Paul Skenes leads the pro with a 2.07 ERA. Will his final mark be higher or lower?
Orny: I would say lower, because it makes sense for the Pittsburgh Pirates to rest as much as possible for the rest of the season. Pittsburgh didn’t play anything, but Skenes won the National League Championship Cy Young Award – you would think the Pirates will do everything they can to achieve that. He will end the season around 180 innings.
Castillo: There are two reasons for a smidge: there are so many numbers in 2.07, and Skenes hasn't been that sharp lately. The right-hander gave up 10 runs in five games in August, scoring a good 3.21 ERA in 28 innings – he recently started his best seven innings of the month in Sunday’s best. As Buster wrote, the Pirates may limit his workload to reduce, so no significant growth will occur.
Freddy Peralta won 15 wins. Will he be the first 20-game champion since 2023?
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Doolittle: As Peralta failed to win No. 16 on Saturday, he was watching a tough battle. Milwaukee brewers may end their No. 1 seeds early, so they won’t push Peralta for the last week. But, suppose he gets six more starts. He won at 0.556 per game, so he was 3.3 in six starts. not enough! With just five chances Peralta needs to win five of the last six games, or all five of them. I think he will win 19 games. The drought will continue in 20 championships.
Schoenfield: I would say yes. Although we always complain about the lack of 20 titles, we have one in 2023, one in 2022, one in 2021, two in 2019, two in 2018, three in 2016, three in 2015, and three in 2014. Yes, it gets more rare, but we usually get at least one. So here I hope Peralta is one.