The last time I wrote the preview of the series, it seemed that the Cardinal was not eligible for the lottery draft. After that, Derrick Goold reported that they were eligible, mainly because it wasn't a lottery pick when they got the #7 overall draft pick. I started this post this way because the Cardinals lost to the Rays, which did have a bad record (almost no), but the +33 run difference, so their season was weird. Also, although to be honest, the chance of losing again is not high at all, and it is difficult to raise it to a meaningful level, which is not that bad anymore.
So, I still cheer for victory. There are 12 teams worse than the Cardinals and one with the same record. Eight of these teams had 60 wins or fewer victories. This means that in the next 31 games, a team has five better teams than the Cardinals. The Rattlesnake has the same exact record, and the Guardian's victory is the same. Especially the guardian falls freely. I just can't fully root myself in the necessary conditions for significantly increasing the chances.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the teams below the Cardinal and 60 wins. These pirates have a twist: We don't face Paul Skynis. Because I don't think Skenes will be playing a series of games with the St. Louis Cardinals for the first time since the Skenes' promotion. Honestly, when one of the Buccaneers in the series was Paul Skenes, the Buccaneers weren't like a 57-win team, and when he wasn't in the series, they did.
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania – August 18: Jared Triolo #19 of Pittsburgh Pirates swings and misses his helmet in an MLB game against the Toronto Blue Jays at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on August 18, 2025. (Joe Robbins) / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
I will have less details because the Cardinal has faced a lot of pirates this year. You kind of know the deal. As a team, they performed poorly in the WRC+ team of 82 of that year. This is just a little better than Victor Scott. They are a team. Spencer Horowitz isn't their hopes of having only 98 WRC+, and there aren't many hit numbers. He sold Luis Ortiz, who may never play baseball again (under investigation), so they may not regret the deal.
Since then, they have also traded Ke'Bryan Hayes. His position is Isiah Kiner-Falefa as a regular 3B, and if this is the best 3B you are going to trade him, I don't know why you are going to trade him (the answer is money). At least I think that, despite the long term, this may be what Jared Triolo is sure to be on the heater. He had 135 WRC+ in the second half, which excluded yesterday's 2-2 days, BB and home runs. To give you an idea of how bad he was in Game 1, he still has only 82 WRC+ in the season. Triolo seems to be a good defender at least at 3B, but now he plays SS with OAA in 237 innings -1 OAA. Triolo does have 892 PAs, but he says he's a bad batsman and he has 0.388 Babip in the second part, so let's see if it's just a hot streak, or if he figured it out. He does have practical power, he has never had it.
Tommy Pham is another great second half player, which is really an unfortunate time for the Pirates because I'm sure they like to swap him for something. He has 136 WRC+ since the All-Star break. Joey Bart fell a lot, which led them to give them more time to play at the receiver Henry Davis. It was a development move because he was terrible. He has 51 WRC+ out of 221 PAs. Andrew McCutchen is still there, the average batsman. So is Nick Gonzalez.
To end the offense, Bryan Reynolds saw his extension to the Pirates as a very bad choice because he almost surpassed the replacement level. His batsman is below average and his fielder is poor. Jack Suwinski is awful, though his Xwoba is good and .175 Babip, so of course some misfortune. There are only 133 PAs this year.
As far as bullpen is concerned, they traded David Bednar and Caleb Ferguson, who were replaced by Dennis Santana, and I don't think anyone. Santana has a 2.32 ERA, but is totally mediocre advanced statistics. They had a left-handed man in the bullpen, and that was Andrew Heaney, who was eliminated. He hasn't pitched for eight days. I think we'll see him in a huge situation. Since this move, he has thrown only 0.2 innings on his only outing. They are using a bulk inning with Bubba Chandler, who succumbed to 4 innings in his debut. He pitched Friday and I think we'll see him in this series.
Isaac Mattson does have a 27% k rate, but does have 4.40 xfip. Honestly, the rest of the bullpens are not good. But considering that Chandler might end one of these games and Heaney is left-handed, he might throw an inning in another game, they probably don't need to use many not-so-good pitchers. If the cardinal has lead when the starter leaves, the weak arm that may be used should be used.
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania – August 20: Pittsburgh Buccaneers' first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on August 20, 2025. (Justin K. Eller/Getty Image Photo)
Mitch Keller (4.34 ERA/3.76 FIP/4.24 XFIP) vs. Michael McGreevy (4.42 ERA/3.39 FIP/4.19 XFIP)
Keller is a good pitcher and has had some success against the Cardinals. He is also a really cold pitcher. He allowed at least five runs in three of his last four games. Even in a good start to that span, he had three strikeouts and three walks. So he is working hard at the moment. Don't worry, Mickey, your remedy is the St. Louis Cardinals' offense.
I said in my post last week that McGreevy needed a higher strikeout to be successful, and honestly, the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates is exactly the kind of team that can help him do that. Last year, he faced Pirates and demanded only 10 hitters in a relief outing, and he beat four Pirates. That's good at playing.
Johan Oviedo (4.50 ERA/4.78 FIP/4.64 XFIP) vs. Andre Pallante (5.17 ERA/4.61 FIP/3.93 XFIP)
Honestly, Pallante is another player who might benefit from the Pirates facing. He faced them seven no-point games last time, although he did hit only three innings. What he did and what he needed to do was get a lot of ground balls in that game. As a team, the Pirates hit more balls on the ground than both teams in baseball games.
Old friend Johan Oviedo is finally healthy. He only opened two innings and only scored 6 innings, but five of them were in his last outing, which were five innings one inning one inning. If there are any signs of his performance so far, look forward to strike out and dealing with him.
Braxton Ashcraft (2.70 ERA/2.51 FIP/3.48 XFIP) vs. Sonny Gray (4.33 ERA/3.26 FIP/2.99 XFIP)
Now, I'm obviously talking about everyone's history of pirates, Gray has a good start, a good start, a bad start. He allowed one inning, but only five innings, and then he scored seven points. In his latest news, he allowed four times, although he allowed the seventh of them in a game where the Cardinal didn't score.
Ashcraft's numbers are misleading because he spends most of the year throwing balls in the bullpen. Except that it is not in the way you expect it to be. His K rate was 28% and his BB rate was 3% in four games. Although two of them are “starts”. He faced 10 batsmen in one of them, lasting 3.1 innings as they reached him out. The fourth is against the Rockies. He did the last five of his last two starts. Chandler might start with this (like he did on Friday), though I wouldn't surprise me if Oviedo lasted for a long time.
Mike Burrows (4.23 ERA/4.37 FIP/3.92 XFIP) vs. Miles Mikolas (5.17 ERA/5.00 FIP/4.81 XFIP)
Yes, this is a four-game series. Somehow, the Cardinal avoided Paul Skenes in four games. If you are interested in watching a great pitcher, you are either lucky – if you are interested in winning, or are unfortunate. That said, the Pirates seem to be very good at developing pitching now. Between Burrows, Ashcraft and now Chandler, none of these guys have made the MLB experience this season, and the first two have a lot in a good sample. To be sure on Chandler, but he is a big pitching prospect. Skenes is also obvious, but he is a little completely true.
Hopefully Mikolas can get a good start. I don't know what to say.
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