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The Philadelphia Eagles are the Super Bowl champions of dominance, so what my NFL projection model like this year is my NFL prediction mode, a favorite this year to conquer the NFC again and have a 15.5% chance of back-to-back. That said, the game is close, as my models expect NFC to go from top to… almost bottom this year (sorry, ahead of schedule, fans of Giants and Saints).
The Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all my teams, with at least an 8% chance of winning NFC this season, while the 2024 NFC Runterners, Washington State's 2024 NFC Runters, Washington State's 2024 NFC Runters, Washington Commanders, The Washington Commanders, barely missed that arbitrary position of 7.8%. Each of these teams has to prove that they can rise to the Eagles, but the real takeaway is that NFC is not like AFC. While the AFC's Big Three is the highest, the NFC is full of competitors.
(If you want to quickly refresh how my model works, scroll to the bottom of the story.)
NFC East
Will we see the first NFC East champion back to back since 2004? perhaps. The defending champion needs to replace some of the talent lost in the elite troops last year, but other than that, things in Philadelphia look clear. The Hawks have a 68.8% chance to win the East, the second best chance of any expected division title, trailing just behind the Buffalo Bills (73.6%).
So, who ranks second in the East? It's still the Commander, but the Dallas Cowboy is closer than some believe. Sure, let's say team owner Jerry Jones can make a deal with star stealer Micah Parsons, but if that happens, the Cowboys will be looking for a universal card.
Another reason the Cowboys may be closer to Washington is that although most people expect Commander QB Jayden Daniels to improve in their outstanding rookie season, I still doubt it. I certainly believe Daniels is good, but he had a lot of high leverage games last season that broke his own path. Can luck be repeated? Not likely. He will need to improve efficiency in other areas to improve.
Finally, the Giants completely addressed the division. While we may not see him start the season, Jaxson Dart is the future of quarterbacks and throwing to star receiver Malik Nabers should also make his life easier, but whoever is playing QB, I have no high hopes for this offense. However, I do think that defense, especially, may face the Giants offense this season. Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and first-round draft pick Abdul Carter are just as good as passers.
NFC North
This is the best department in football and I don't want to argue. The division saw three teams win 11 games last season, with Chicago North residents hiring Ben Johnson, the hottest name in the coach’s carousel in the past two cycles. Will the three teams win the double game again? No, but the worst team won't just win five games either.
The Lions were back-to-back NFC North champions for the first time and were given three consecutive wins. But that doesn't mean there is no problem. Losing offensive thinking like Johnson, and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will sting. How will QB Jared Goff transition to the way new offensive coordinator John Morton do things? We'll see it soon, but one thing that helps to alleviate some of the losses of the lion is getting healthy Aidan Hutchinson. Last season, the Star Sprints wreaked havoc in the NFL before breaking his tibia and fibula in Week 6.
The Packers, Minnesota Vikings and the Bears revolved around the rest of the division, and the Packers nodded because of the certainty of the quarterback. Despite last year’s records (Minnesota, 14-3; Green Bay 11-6), Packers are closer to the lion than the Vikings because the Vikings convert the keys to the unproven QB JJ McCarthy. McCarthy is in a favorable state, but it's hard to know he's doing well before we see him play.
JJ McCarthy
Vikings
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Chicago is an interesting place in the North. The Bears have been a offseason hype team in recent seasons, but this year, there is a real reason to jump on the trend. Johnson should make life easier for QB Caleb Williams, as do offseason investments on the offensive line. But is the roster ready to play for the playoffs when Chicago is in such a strong division? My model is not ready to go there.
NFC South
Tampa Bay's four-game streak could hit five, not because my model sees the Pirates as a world companion, but because the rest of the department is either unproven or just terrible. The Bucs' offense has to prove that it can operate high speed without respected offensive coordinator Liam Coen (now in Jacksonville), so it's not easy, but Tampa Bay certainly feels like winning the South's lock. My model thinks the chance of doing this is 64.2%.
The model has the Atlanta Falcons as the second largest team in the department, and, of course, I don't like it. QB Michael Penix Jr. is a little unknown, and despite the huge investment in passing sprints during the draft, the defense still has a path. Fortunately for them, the Carolina Panthers need further defense, which weakened the exciting second half of QB Bryce Young and offensive volume. As for the New Orleans Saints, my model doesn't care if rookie Tyler Shoough or Spencer Rattler wins the starting QB job; they'll be the No. 1 contender in the draft regardless of the outcome.
NFC West
While the NFC North is the best department in football, according to my model, the West should be the most exciting. With only two wins this year separating the top from the bottom, Rams QB Matthew Stafford's lingering back injury bringing more uncertainty.
Currently, my numbers have 49 people as a favorite – they are dealing with their own injuries now – mainly because their schedules are much easier than the Rams. Actually, I would prefer the Rams on the 49ers in the neutral field, but the difference in schedule gives San Francisco an edge.
Most departments have one or two teams that you don't actually need to pay attention, but this is not the case in the West. The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks offer a great chance of winning records this season. Both teams have at least 14% chance of winning the division and a 37% chance of making the playoffs. If the damage error becomes too many for 49 people and/or the rams cannot overcome the problem – this happened before this – both of them will be exploited there.
How a simulated NFL projection model works
My NFL projection model takes game-by-play data and creates offensive and defensive predictions for each team. Using these predictions, we can simulate a 100,000 season season to see how a team wins, how often the team plays out, and the likelihood of winning the division and the Super Bowl.
(Photo: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)